The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) has updated its economic growth forecast for the Kyrgyz Republic. EFSD analysts note accelerating growth due to the active development of the construction sector and investment activity.
According to the Fund’s updated estimates, the Kyrgyz Republic’s GDP growth rate will be 9 percent in 2025. This will slow to 6.4 percent in 2026, 6 percent in 2027, and 5.5 percent in 2028. At the same time, the EFSD has increased the average growth forecast for the Kyrgyz economy by 0.8 percentage points.
The main factor driving this adjustment was high growth in construction, driven by both increased investment in industry and the expansion of housing construction under My Home program.
Experts believe that inflation will exceed the target range this year, reaching 8.1 percent by the end of 2025. This is due to rising prices for food, electricity, and a number of services.
Next year, inflation will stabilize at an average of 6.4 percent, returning to the range set by the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan, the EFSD notes.
The budget sector is expected to maintain a surplus of 1.6 percent of GDP in 2025-2027, which will allow for the financing of recapitalization of state-owned enterprises in the energy, banking, and construction sectors.
From 2028, a transition to a small budget deficit (approximately 0.2 percent of GDP) is projected due to declining tax revenues.
